Knox County rain, outlook and forecast
As of the Oct 27 Drought Monitor, most of Knox County, TX was in moderate drought (D1), with 37% at severe drought (D2); week 39 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Rain has run 307% of normal over the last 30 days (well above normal) and 110% over 90 days, so the past month has been wetter than the season so far; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 8–12 leans drier than normal (33% chance of below-normal rain) and today carries the week's highest rain chance at 34% (high 83°). Knox County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 4 monthly payments, and Apache is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 118 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 307% of normal
- Last 60 days 158% of normal
- Last 90 days 110% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 8–12) Leans drier than normal (33% chance of below-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 10–16) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 83°, low 57°, 34% rain, wind 13–22 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 69°, low 49°, 1% rain, wind 6–21 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 72°, low 54°, 0% rain, wind 3–8 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 71°, low 49°, 1% rain, wind 7–12 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 66°, low 47°, 5% rain, wind 3–7 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny, high 64°, low 46°, 7% rain, wind 2–6 mph
- Sunday Sunny, high 65°, low 45°, 4% rain, wind 5–8 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 2, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
PRF pasture insurance: sign up by Dec 1, 2026
The 2027 Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) insurance sales closing date for Knox County is Dec 1, 2026, 29 days from today. PRF (Rainfall Index) pays on a rainfall index for your grid, not on your own rain gauge. You buy it through a crop insurance agent.
How PRF works · PRF 2027 sign-up · Find your grid on RMA's PRF tool
Date from USDA RMA's actuarial data, read Aug 28, 2026 · RMA dates map. Your agent confirms the date for your policy.
Knox County grass production
In 2025, grassland and pasture in Knox County grew about 1,771 pounds per acre of grass and forbs, 129% of the county's 1991-2020 normal of 1,368 pounds per acre. That was the 5th best of 40 years on record (1986-2025). Best year: 2021 at 1,901 pounds per acre; worst: 1986 at 468.
Pounds per acre of new grass and forbs each year on rangeland and pasture, from the Rangeland Analysis Platform (satellite-based estimates). See every year on the Land tab.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Knox County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Knox County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Knox County
Forecast for the center point of Knox County.
- Severe Thunderstorm Warning
- Tornado Watch
- Today Chance Showers And Thunderstorms 83° 57° SW 13–22 mph 34% rain
- Tue Sunny 69° 49° NW 6–21 mph 1% rain
- Wed Sunny 72° 54° SSW 3–8 mph 0% rain
- Thu Sunny 71° 49° WNW 7–12 mph 1% rain
- Fri Sunny 66° 47° NNE 3–7 mph 5% rain
- Sat Mostly Sunny 64° 46° NW 2–6 mph 7% rain
- Sun Sunny 65° 45° N 5–8 mph 4% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 2, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
Burn ban ON
In effect since Sep 11, 2023.
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 2, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
- Tornado Watch Extreme
Tornado Watch issued November 2 at 1:27PM CST until November 2 at 10:00PM CST by NWS Norman OK - Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued November 2 at 3:44PM CST until November 2 at 4:30PM CST by NWS Norman OK
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 2, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 2.67 in; same month last year 0.78 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (75 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 2, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Knox County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Truscott 3 W weather station (13 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 227-day growing season |
Mar 28 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 14 |
Nov 9 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 26 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 252-day growing season |
Mar 13 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 2 |
Nov 20 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 2 |
Haskell weather station (31 mi away)
farther away No station with freeze dates is close to the county center, so local dates can differ.
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 225-day growing season |
Mar 28 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 14 |
Nov 7 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 25 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 248-day growing season |
Mar 15 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 3 |
Nov 17 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 2 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Truscott 3 W, Haskell), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Knox County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Knox County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Knox County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Knox County was in moderate drought (D1), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 37% of the county. 39 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Knox County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Knox County (since Sep 11, 2023). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Knox County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Apache (118 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Tulia (134 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; San Angelo (156 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.