Hardeman County rain, outlook and forecast
On the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, most of Hardeman County, TX was in severe drought (D2), with a sliver (<1%) at exceptional drought (D4), and D2-or-worse drought has held there 39 weeks running. Hardeman County has had 302% of its normal rain in the past 30 days and 102% over 90 days, so the past month has been wetter than the season so far; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain and the best rain chance this week is 25% on Saturday (high 71°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Hardeman County with up to 5 monthly payments, and Apache is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 89 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 302% of normal
- Last 60 days 150% of normal
- Last 90 days 102% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy, high 75°, low 64°, 7% rain, wind 6–17 mph
- Monday Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Sunny, high 83°, low 55°, 15% rain, wind 12–23 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 71°, low 48°, 0% rain, wind 7–20 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 72°, low 48°, 5% rain, wind 3–7 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 71°, low 46°, 5% rain, wind 6–12 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 70°, low 49°, 10% rain, wind 1–6 mph
- Saturday Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 71°, low 49°, 25% rain, wind 6–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Hardeman County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Hardeman County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Hardeman County
Forecast for the center point of Hardeman County.
- Today Mostly Cloudy 75° 64° SSE 6–17 mph 7% rain
- Mon Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Sunny 83° 55° SSW 12–23 mph 15% rain
- Tue Sunny 71° 48° NNW 7–20 mph 0% rain
- Wed Sunny 72° 48° W 3–7 mph 5% rain
- Thu Sunny 71° 46° NW 6–12 mph 5% rain
- Fri Sunny 70° 49° N 1–6 mph 10% rain
- Sat Slight Chance Rain Showers 71° 49° WNW 6–10 mph 25% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
Burn ban ON
In effect since Nov 16, 2025.
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 2.68 in; same month last year 0.91 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (92 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Hardeman County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Childress 2 weather station (29 mi away)
farther away No station with freeze dates is close to the county center, so local dates can differ.
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 217-day growing season |
Apr 3 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 17 |
Nov 5 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 20 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 240-day growing season |
Mar 21 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 7 |
Nov 15 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 29 |
Quanah 2 Sw weather station (1 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 210-day growing season |
Apr 4 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 22 |
Nov 1 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 17 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 234-day growing season |
Mar 22 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 11 |
Nov 10 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 25 |
short record Based on only 15 years of records here (30 is normal), so treat it as rougher.
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Childress 2, Quanah 2 Sw), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Hardeman County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Hardeman County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 5 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Hardeman County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Hardeman County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was exceptional drought (D4) on a sliver (<1%) of the county. 39 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Hardeman County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Hardeman County (since Nov 16, 2025). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Hardeman County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Apache (89 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Tulia (118 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; El Reno (133 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.