Clay County rain, outlook and forecast
As of the Oct 27 Drought Monitor, most of Clay County, TX was in moderate drought (D1), with 13% at severe drought (D2); week 12 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Rain has run 129% of normal over the last 30 days (above normal) and 75% over 90 days, so the past month has been wetter than the season so far; the NWS forecast peaks at a 72% rain chance on today (high 82°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 8–12 leans drier than normal (33% chance of below-normal rain). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Clay County with up to 4 monthly payments, and Apache is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 77 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 129% of normal
- Last 60 days 103% of normal
- Last 90 days 75% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 8–12) Leans drier than normal (33% chance of below-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 10–16) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 82°, low 54°, 72% rain, wind 9–21 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 71°, low 46°, 2% rain, wind 1–16 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 73°, low 50°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 75°, low 46°, 3% rain, wind 5–9 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 69°, low 43°, 4% rain, wind 2–6 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny, high 66°, low 42°, 7% rain, wind 0–3 mph
- Sunday Sunny, high 67°, low 41°, 4% rain, wind 2–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 2, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
PRF pasture insurance: sign up by Dec 1, 2026
The 2027 Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) insurance sales closing date for Clay County is Dec 1, 2026, 29 days from today. PRF (Rainfall Index) pays on a rainfall index for your grid, not on your own rain gauge. You buy it through a crop insurance agent.
How PRF works · PRF 2027 sign-up · Find your grid on RMA's PRF tool
Date from USDA RMA's actuarial data, read Aug 28, 2026 · RMA dates map. Your agent confirms the date for your policy.
Clay County grass production
In 2025, grassland and pasture in Clay County grew about 3,335 pounds per acre of grass and forbs, 119% of the county's 1991-2020 normal of 2,805 pounds per acre. That was the 8th best of 40 years on record (1986-2025). Best year: 2016 at 3,632 pounds per acre; worst: 1986 at 997.
Pounds per acre of new grass and forbs each year on rangeland and pasture, from the Rangeland Analysis Platform (satellite-based estimates). See every year on the Land tab.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Clay County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Clay County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Drought, past 12 months
13% of the county in severe drought or worse, 12 weeks running.
How to read this
Each band is how much of the county was in that drought level that week. Darker = worse. D2 (severe) and darker can trigger USDA drought pay.
Right now: 13% of the county is in severe drought or worse; some of it has been for 12 weeks running. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor, map of Oct 27, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Clay County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Clay County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Clay County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Clay County was in moderate drought (D1), and the worst part was severe drought (D2) on 13% of the county. 12 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Clay County?
No burn ban is listed for Clay County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Clay County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Apache (77 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Ada (111 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026; El Reno (122 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.