Cherokee County rain, outlook and forecast
On the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, most of Cherokee County, TX was in severe drought (D2), with 1% at extreme drought (D3); week 9 in a row with some severe drought (D2) or worse. Rain has run 38% of normal over the last 30 days (well below normal) and 64% over 90 days, so the past month has been drier than the season so far; Tuesday carries the week's highest rain chance at 94% (high 73°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. Cherokee County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 4 monthly payments, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is Giddings, 155 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 38% of normal
- Last 60 days 88% of normal
- Last 90 days 64% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Sunny, high 80°, low 65°, 3% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Monday Partly Sunny, high 81°, low 67°, 57% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms, high 73°, low 52°, 94% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 72°, low 50°, 1% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 74°, low 50°, 10% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 71°, low 48°, 3% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny, high 70°, low 48°, 18% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows 1 open
| What happened | Started | Tell FSA early by | FSA deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme drought (D3) reached (U.S. Drought Monitor) | Oct 27, 2026 | Nov 26, 2026 (25 days left) | Mar 1, 2027 |
If this cost you livestock, extra feed or hauled water, call your county FSA office now, while it's fresh. The 30-day date is a suggestion from Cownty; FSA's deadline for the notice of loss and application is the March 1 date. Log it in your Drought Ledger · Find your FSA office and phone
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Cherokee County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Cherokee County
Forecast for the center point of Cherokee County.
- Today Mostly Sunny 80° 65° NE 0–5 mph 3% rain
- Mon Partly Sunny 81° 67° S 5–15 mph 57% rain
- Tue Showers And Thunderstorms 73° 52° SW 5–10 mph 94% rain
- Wed Sunny 72° 50° NW 0–5 mph 1% rain
- Thu Sunny 74° 50° S 0–5 mph 10% rain
- Fri Sunny 71° 48° N 0–5 mph 3% rain
- Sat Mostly Sunny 70° 48° NE 0–5 mph 18% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No burn ban
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 3.57 in; same month last year 1.44 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Cherokee County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Rusk weather station (2 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 263-day growing season |
Mar 7 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 29 |
Nov 25 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 5 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 292-day growing season |
Feb 23 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 15 |
Dec 7 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 13 |
Palestine 2 Ne weather station (27 mi away)
farther away No station with freeze dates is close to the county center, so local dates can differ.
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 234-day growing season |
Mar 23 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 9 |
Nov 9 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 28 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 258-day growing season |
Mar 9 1 year in 10 it's after Mar 29 |
Nov 20 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 3 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Rusk, Palestine 2 Ne), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Cherokee County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Cherokee County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Cherokee County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Cherokee County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was extreme drought (D3) on 1% of the county. 9 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Cherokee County?
No burn ban is listed for Cherokee County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Cherokee County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Giddings (155 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026; Hope (156 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.