Catron County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Catron County, NM was abnormally dry (D0) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, with 23% at moderate drought (D1); 23% of the county is in moderate drought (D1) or worse, down from 72% four weeks earlier. Rain has run 82% of normal over the last 30 days (below normal) and 160% over 90 days, so the past month has been drier than the season so far; today carries the week's highest rain chance at 99% (high 59°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Catron County with up to 4 monthly payments, and Belen is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 108 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 82% of normal
- Last 60 days 252% of normal
- Last 90 days 160% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Showers And Thunderstorms, high 59°, low 38°, 99% rain, wind 15–25 mph
- Monday Chance Rain Showers then Sunny, high 55°, low 31°, 31% rain, wind 5–20 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 60°, low 33°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 61°, low 31°, 1% rain, wind 0–15 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 61°, low 32°, 0% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 59°, low 32°, 14% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Sunny, high 56°, low 30°, 12% rain, wind 0–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Catron County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Catron County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Catron County
Forecast for the center point of Catron County.
- Flood Advisory
- Flood Watch
- Freeze on 5 nights
- Windy on 1 day
- Today Showers And Thunderstorms 59° 38° SW 15–25 mph 99% rain
- Mon Chance Rain Showers then Sunny 55° 31° W 5–20 mph 31% rain
- Tue Sunny 60° 33° S 0–5 mph 0% rain
- Wed Sunny 61° 31° SW 0–15 mph 1% rain
- Thu Sunny 61° 32° W 0–5 mph 0% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 59° 32° W 0–5 mph 14% rain
- Sat Sunny 56° 30° NW 0–10 mph 12% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No state restrictions
Open burning, field burning, campfires prohibited
New Mexico Forestry Division (state forester) restrictions for non-municipal, non-federal, non-Tribal land in Catron County (source), as of Oct 6, 2026. County rules and federal-land rules are separate; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
- Flood Watch Severe
Flood Watch issued November 1 at 2:09PM MST until November 2 at 11:00AM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM - Flood Advisory Minor
Flood Advisory issued November 1 at 4:20PM MST until November 3 at 12:00AM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 1.98 in; same month last year 1.76 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Catron County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Reserve Rs weather station (26 mi away)
farther away No station with freeze dates is close to the county center, so local dates can differ.
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 127-day growing season |
May 30 1 year in 10 it's after Jun 12 |
Oct 3 1 year in 10 it's before Sep 22 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 150-day growing season |
May 13 1 year in 10 it's after Jun 2 |
Oct 12 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 1 |
short record Based on only 7 years of records here (30 is normal), so treat it as rougher.
Quemado weather station (31 mi away)
farther away No station with freeze dates is close to the county center, so local dates can differ.
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 117-day growing season |
Jun 1 1 year in 10 it's after Jun 14 |
Sep 29 1 year in 10 it's before Sep 15 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 138-day growing season |
May 21 1 year in 10 it's after Jun 4 |
Oct 6 1 year in 10 it's before Sep 24 |
short record Based on only 14 years of records here (30 is normal), so treat it as rougher.
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Reserve Rs, Quemado), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Catron County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Catron County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Catron County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Catron County was in abnormally dry (D0), and the worst part was moderate drought (D1) on 23% of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Catron County?
No burn ban is listed for Catron County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Catron County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Belen (108 mi), last report Oct 30, 2026; Santa Teresa (172 mi), last report Oct 30, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 10, 2026: First half of property taxes due to the county treasurer; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.