Bailey County rain, outlook and forecast
As of the Oct 27 Drought Monitor, most of Bailey County, TX showed no drought; four weeks earlier 100% of the county was in moderate drought (D1) or worse, now 0%. Over 90 days rain is at 134% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 94% (near normal); the NWS forecast peaks at a 50% rain chance on today (high 70°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Bailey County with up to 4 monthly payments, and Clovis is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 32 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 94% of normal
- Last 60 days 183% of normal
- Last 90 days 134% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy, high 70°, low 58°, 50% rain, wind 15–25 mph
- Monday Sunny, high 71°, low 44°, 2% rain, wind 10–30 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 65°, low 41°, 0% rain, wind 0–15 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 69°, low 43°, 2% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 65°, low 38°, 0% rain, wind 0–15 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 64°, low 41°, 11% rain, wind 5 mph
- Saturday Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny, high 64°, low 40°, 15% rain, wind 5–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Bailey County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Bailey County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Bailey County
Forecast for the center point of Bailey County.
- Windy on 2 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy 70° 58° S 15–25 mph 50% rain
- Mon Sunny 71° 44° WSW 10–30 mph 2% rain
- Tue Sunny 65° 41° NNW 0–15 mph 0% rain
- Wed Sunny 69° 43° SSW 5–15 mph 2% rain
- Thu Sunny 65° 38° NNW 0–15 mph 0% rain
- Fri Sunny 64° 41° SW 5 mph 11% rain
- Sat Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny 64° 40° NW 5–10 mph 15% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
Burn ban ON
In effect since Jul 25, 2022.
Texas A&M Forest Service map (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. County judges set bans; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 2.29 in; same month last year 1.05 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Bailey County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Muleshoe Ntl Wr weather station (8 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 177-day growing season |
Apr 25 1 year in 10 it's after May 6 |
Oct 19 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 6 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 195-day growing season |
Apr 15 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 29 |
Oct 28 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 15 |
Muleshoe #1 weather station (12 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 180-day growing season |
Apr 22 1 year in 10 it's after May 4 |
Oct 20 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 7 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 197-day growing season |
Apr 12 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 27 |
Oct 28 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 16 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Muleshoe Ntl Wr, Muleshoe #1), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Bailey County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Bailey County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Bailey County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Bailey County was in no drought, and the worst part was no drought on 0% of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Bailey County?
Yes, a burn ban is in effect for Bailey County (since Jul 25, 2022). Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Bailey County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Clovis (32 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026; Tulia (68 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Wildorado (88 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 13, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.