Adair County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Adair County, OK was in severe drought (D2) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, with 9% at extreme drought (D3), and D2-or-worse drought has held there 11 weeks running. Over 90 days rain is at 51% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 56% (below normal); the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain and the NWS forecast peaks at a 90% rain chance on Monday (high 77°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Adair County with up to 4 monthly payments, and Siloam Springs is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 21 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 56% of normal
- Last 60 days 67% of normal
- Last 90 days 51% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans drier than normal (33% chance of below-normal rain)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Patchy Fog then Mostly Cloudy, high 73°, low 59°, 4% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Monday Partly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 77°, low 59°, 90% rain, wind 10–15 mph
- Tuesday Chance Rain Showers, high 72°, low 45°, 34% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Wednesday Mostly Sunny, high 66°, low 43°, 2% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Thursday Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny, high 69°, low 42°, 17% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 68°, low 42°, 2% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny, high 69°, low 44°, 15% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Adair County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Adair County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Adair County
Forecast for the center point of Adair County.
- Today Patchy Fog then Mostly Cloudy 73° 59° S 0–10 mph 4% rain
- Mon Partly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers 77° 59° S 10–15 mph 90% rain
- Tue Chance Rain Showers 72° 45° SW 0–10 mph 34% rain
- Wed Mostly Sunny 66° 43° NW 0–10 mph 2% rain
- Thu Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny 69° 42° W 0–5 mph 17% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 68° 42° N 0–5 mph 2% rain
- Sat Mostly Sunny 69° 44° SW 0–5 mph 15% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No burn ban
Oklahoma Forestry Services burn-ban map, which carries county commissioners' bans and the Governor's burn-ban proclamations (source, rules). County row as of Oct 1, 2026. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 4.49 in; same month last year 6.23 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Adair County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Stilwell 5 Nnw weather station (0 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 217-day growing season |
Mar 31 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 20 |
Nov 4 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 21 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 241-day growing season |
Mar 17 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 6 |
Nov 14 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 26 |
short record Based on only 12 years of records here (30 is normal), so treat it as rougher.
Tahlequah weather station (18 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 209-day growing season |
Apr 4 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 24 |
Oct 31 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 16 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 232-day growing season |
Mar 23 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 9 |
Nov 10 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 26 |
short record Based on only 16 years of records here (30 is normal), so treat it as rougher.
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Stilwell 5 Nnw, Tahlequah), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Adair County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Adair County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Adair County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Adair County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was extreme drought (D3) on 9% of the county. 11 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Adair County?
No burn ban is listed for Adair County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Adair County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Siloam Springs (21 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Ratcliff (59 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026; Exeter (66 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 1, 2026: Property taxes due (bills payable from November 1); Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.