Adair County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Adair County, OK was in severe drought (D2) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, with 9% at extreme drought (D3), and D2-or-worse drought has held there 11 weeks running. Over 90 days rain is at 51% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 56% (below normal); the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain and the NWS forecast peaks at a 90% rain chance on Monday (high 77°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Adair County with up to 4 monthly payments, and Siloam Springs is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 21 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 56% of normal
- Last 60 days 67% of normal
- Last 90 days 51% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans drier than normal (33% chance of below-normal rain)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Patchy Fog then Mostly Cloudy, high 73°, low 59°, 4% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Monday Partly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 77°, low 59°, 90% rain, wind 10–15 mph
- Tuesday Chance Rain Showers, high 72°, low 45°, 34% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Wednesday Mostly Sunny, high 66°, low 43°, 2% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Thursday Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny, high 69°, low 42°, 17% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 68°, low 42°, 2% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny, high 69°, low 44°, 15% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Adair County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Adair County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Adair County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.62 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.35 /cwt ($2.44 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.86 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.67 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
| Soft red winter wheat | $3.11 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.375% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.375% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Oct 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2026 program year guarantees only FSA file of Jan 16, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Most it can pay |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $566.19 | $75.49 |
| Oats | $137.58 | $18.34 |
| Wheat | $244.94 | $32.66 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | 125.07 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $629.10 |
| Oats | 38.8 bushel/ac × $3.94 | $152.87 |
| Wheat | 38.99 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $272.15 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2026 county data.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Sep 30, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barley | $189.51 | $188.48 | $1.03 |
| Corn | $543.06 | $499.03 | $44.03 |
| Grain Sorghum | $224.15 | $172.45 | $29.89 |
| Oats | $136.34 | $127.42 | $8.92 |
| Wheat | $223.20 | $179.78 | $29.76 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 34.52 bushel/ac × $6.10 | $210.57 |
| Corn | 119.96 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $603.40 |
| Grain Sorghum | 46.99 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $249.05 |
| Oats | 39.45 bushel/ac × $3.84 | $151.49 |
| Wheat | 35.53 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $248.00 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 9, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Adair County
$3,055,089
751 payments dated Jan 2, 2025 to Dec 3, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| LFP drought pasture pay | 2024 | $1,889,799 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2024 | $1,083,172 |
| Nap Regular Web-Based | 2025 | $47,985 |
| Emerg Assist Livestock Bees Fish (Elap) | 2024 | $6,912 |
| Emergency Commodity Assistance Program | 2024 | $5,901 |
| Livestock Indeminity Payments Program | 2024 | $5,209 |
| CRP annual rent | 2015 | $3,630 |
| CRP annual rent | 2014 | $2,902 |
Plus 7 smaller program lines.
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Adair), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Oklahoma crop and pasture condition
Oklahoma statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is behind normal (51% vs 69%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Oct 25, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasture and Range | 49% | 34% | 17% +4 vs last week |
| Cotton | 63% | 30% | 7% -2 vs last week |
| Peanut | 9% | 19% | 72% +6 vs last week |
Progress
| Oklahoma | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 51% | 37% | 69% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 32% | 18% | 47% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 66% | 61% | 56% |
| Cotton Harvested | 17% | 9% | 27% |
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Oct 26, 2026 (ESMIS), Oklahoma rows. Week ending Oct 25, 2026. Fetched Oct 26, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Adair County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Adair County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 4 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Adair County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Adair County was in severe drought (D2), and the worst part was extreme drought (D3) on 9% of the county. 11 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Adair County?
No burn ban is listed for Adair County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Adair County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Siloam Springs (21 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Ratcliff (59 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026; Exeter (66 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 1, 2026: Property taxes due (bills payable from November 1); Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.