Neosho County rain, outlook and forecast
The Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map shows most of Neosho County, KS abnormally dry (D0), with 47% at moderate drought (D1); 47% of the county is in moderate drought (D1) or worse, down from 100% four weeks earlier. Rain has run 83% of normal over the last 30 days (below normal) and 111% over 90 days, so the past month has been drier than the season so far; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain and the best rain chance this week is 87% on today (high 76°). Neosho County is on FSA's 2026 LFP list with up to 2 monthly payments, and Exeter is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 98 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 83% of normal
- Last 60 days 156% of normal
- Last 90 days 111% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 2, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 76°, low 59°, 87% rain, wind 15–24 mph
- Tuesday Chance Rain Showers, high 68°, low 46°, 35% rain, wind 6–15 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 65°, low 44°, 1% rain, wind 5–10 mph
- Thursday Mostly Sunny, high 65°, low 41°, 11% rain, wind 2–7 mph
- Friday Sunny, high 63°, low 41°, 3% rain, wind 3–6 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny, high 66°, low 42°, 8% rain, wind 2–8 mph
- Sunday Sunny, high 62°, low 40°, 15% rain, wind 3–14 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 2, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
PRF pasture insurance: sign up by Dec 1, 2026
The 2027 Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) insurance sales closing date for Neosho County is Dec 1, 2026, 29 days from today. PRF (Rainfall Index) pays on a rainfall index for your grid, not on your own rain gauge. You buy it through a crop insurance agent.
How PRF works · PRF 2027 sign-up · Find your grid on RMA's PRF tool
Date from USDA RMA's actuarial data, read Aug 28, 2026 · RMA dates map. Your agent confirms the date for your policy.
Neosho County grass production
In 2025, grassland and pasture in Neosho County grew about 2,924 pounds per acre of grass and forbs, 99% of the county's 1991-2020 normal of 2,944 pounds per acre. That was the 18th best of 40 years on record (1986-2025). Best year: 2016 at 3,630 pounds per acre; worst: 1986 at 1,776.
Pounds per acre of new grass and forbs each year on rangeland and pasture, from the Rangeland Analysis Platform (satellite-based estimates). See every year on the Land tab.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Neosho County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Neosho County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Neosho County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.57 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.26 /cwt ($2.39 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.84 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.58 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
| Soft red winter wheat | $3.08 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.625% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.625% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Nov 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 2, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2026 program year guarantees only FSA file of Jan 16, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Most it can pay |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | $289.35 | $38.58 |
| Corn | $483.57 | $64.48 |
| Grain Sorghum | $341.15 | $45.49 |
| Oats | $197.44 | $26.33 |
| Soybeans | $324.10 | $43.21 |
| Sunflower Seed | $262.13 | $34.95 |
| Wheat | $342.87 | $45.72 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 50.0 bushel/ac × $6.43 | $321.50 |
| Corn | 106.82 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $537.30 |
| Grain Sorghum | 71.52 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $379.06 |
| Oats | 55.68 bushel/ac × $3.94 | $219.38 |
| Soybeans | 29.59 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $360.11 |
| Sunflower Seed | 1159.43 pound/ac × $0.25 | $291.25 |
| Wheat | 54.58 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $380.97 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2026 county data.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Nov 2, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barley | $210.43 | $278.46 | $0.00 |
| Corn | $455.06 | $456.27 | $0.00 |
| Grain Sorghum | $338.00 | $267.14 | $45.07 |
| Oats | $185.48 | $221.87 | $0.00 |
| Soybeans | $345.13 | $416.75 | $0.00 |
| Sunflower Seed | $276.08 | $370.03 | $0.00 |
| Wheat | $294.69 | $374.59 | $0.00 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 38.33 bushel/ac × $6.10 | $233.81 |
| Corn | 100.52 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $505.62 |
| Grain Sorghum | 70.86 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $375.56 |
| Oats | 53.67 bushel/ac × $3.84 | $206.09 |
| Soybeans | 31.51 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $383.48 |
| Sunflower Seed | 1222.12 pound/ac × $0.25 | $306.75 |
| Wheat | 46.91 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $327.43 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 30, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Neosho County
$9,407,926
2,803 payments dated Jan 10, 2025 to Dec 29, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Emergency Commodity Assistance Program | 2024 | $4,037,159 |
| Emergency Livestock Relief (2023-24 drought) | 2023 | $1,475,734 |
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2023 | $1,378,556 |
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2024 | $1,159,050 |
| ARC county payments | 2024 | $1,143,839 |
| Livestock Indeminity Payments Program | 2025 | $53,540 |
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2025 | $36,488 |
| Livestock Indeminity Payments Program | 2024 | $30,625 |
Plus 18 smaller program lines.
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Neosho), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Kansas crop and pasture condition
Kansas statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is on pace with normal (80% vs 79%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Oct 25, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasture and Range | 31% | 37% | 32% -3 vs last week |
| Corn | 34% | 26% | 40% +0 vs last week |
| Cotton | 32% | 40% | 28% +4 vs last week |
Progress
| Kansas | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 80% | 60% | 79% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 48% | 30% | 56% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 40% | 30% | 65% |
| Cotton Harvested | 21% | 12% | 29% |
| Corn Harvested | 79% | 70% | 81% |
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Oct 26, 2026 (ESMIS), Kansas rows. Week ending Oct 25, 2026. Fetched Oct 26, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Neosho County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Neosho County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 2 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Neosho County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Neosho County was in abnormally dry (D0), and the worst part was moderate drought (D1) on 47% of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Neosho County?
No official statewide list to check: Kansas has no statewide official burn-ban list; county commissions set bans and announce them locally (county emergency management or sheriff).
What sale barns are near Neosho County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Exeter (98 mi), last report Oct 27, 2026; Tulsa (104 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026; Siloam Springs (105 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 20, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.