Lea County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Lea County, NM was abnormally dry (D0) on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, with 2% at moderate drought (D1); four weeks earlier 100% of the county was in moderate drought (D1) or worse, now 2%. Rain has run 165% of normal over the last 30 days (well above normal) and 155% over 90 days; the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain) and the best rain chance this week is 21% on Saturday (high 67°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Lea County with up to 2 monthly payments, and Roswell is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 76 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 165% of normal
- Last 60 days 224% of normal
- Last 90 days 155% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans wetter than normal (33% chance of above-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Patchy Fog then Mostly Cloudy, high 74°, low 59°, 19% rain, wind 15–20 mph
- Monday Sunny then Patchy Blowing Dust, high 73°, low 50°, 0% rain, wind 10–35 mph
- Tuesday Sunny, high 68°, low 46°, 0% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 71°, low 47°, 1% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Thursday Sunny, high 69°, low 44°, 0% rain, wind 5–15 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 67°, low 47°, 15% rain, wind 5 mph
- Saturday Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 67°, low 45°, 21% rain, wind 5–10 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Lea County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Lea County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Lea County
Forecast for the center point of Lea County.
- Windy on 1 day
- Today Patchy Fog then Mostly Cloudy 74° 59° S 15–20 mph 19% rain
- Mon Sunny then Patchy Blowing Dust 73° 50° W 10–35 mph 0% rain
- Tue Sunny 68° 46° N 0–10 mph 0% rain
- Wed Sunny 71° 47° S 5–15 mph 1% rain
- Thu Sunny 69° 44° N 5–15 mph 0% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 67° 47° SE 5 mph 15% rain
- Sat Slight Chance Rain Showers 67° 45° W 5–10 mph 21% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026 old. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
No state restrictions
New Mexico Forestry Division (state forester) restrictions for non-municipal, non-federal, non-Tribal land in Lea County (source), as of Oct 6, 2026. County rules and federal-land rules are separate; check with the county before burning. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 2.41 in; same month last year 1.09 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Lea County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Tatum weather station (31 mi away)
farther away No station with freeze dates is close to the county center, so local dates can differ.
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 188-day growing season |
Apr 19 1 year in 10 it's after May 2 |
Oct 26 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 12 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 209-day growing season |
Apr 8 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 24 |
Nov 4 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 22 |
Hobbs 13w weather station (7 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 230-day growing season |
Mar 28 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 15 |
Nov 13 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 30 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 257-day growing season |
Mar 10 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 2 |
Nov 23 1 year in 10 it's before Nov 7 |
short record Based on only 17 years of records here (30 is normal), so treat it as rougher.
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Tatum, Hobbs 13w), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Lea County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Lea County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 2 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Lea County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Lea County was in abnormally dry (D0), and the worst part was moderate drought (D1) on 2% of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Lea County?
No burn ban is listed for Lea County. Check with the county before burning.
What sale barns are near Lea County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Roswell (76 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026; Clovis (111 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026; Tulia (152 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 10, 2026: First half of property taxes due to the county treasurer; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.