Ellis County rain, outlook and forecast
As of the Oct 27 Drought Monitor, most of Ellis County, KS showed no drought, though 4% at abnormally dry (D0); four weeks earlier 3% of the county was in moderate drought (D1) or worse, now 0%. Over 90 days rain is at 145% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 88% (near normal); the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain and the NWS forecast peaks at a 70% rain chance on Monday (high 74°). FSA's 2026 LFP list includes Ellis County with up to 2 monthly payments, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is Dodge City, 89 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 88% of normal
- Last 60 days 193% of normal
- Last 90 days 145% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Cloudy, high 64°, low 61°, 69% rain, wind 18–31 mph
- Monday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 74°, low 46°, 70% rain, wind 15–29 mph
- Tuesday Chance Rain Showers then Partly Sunny, high 53°, low 38°, 38% rain, wind 8–28 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 57°, low 38°, 18% rain, wind 5–9 mph
- Thursday Mostly Sunny, high 53°, low 35°, 12% rain, wind 6–12 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 58°, low 39°, 3% rain, wind 5–6 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers, high 60°, low 41°, 18% rain, wind 6–9 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Ellis County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag IRS list
Ellis County is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (severe or worse drought, Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Ellis County
Forecast for the center point of Ellis County.
- Windy on 3 days
- Today Cloudy 64° 61° SSE 18–31 mph 69% rain
- Mon Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms 74° 46° SSW 15–29 mph 70% rain
- Tue Chance Rain Showers then Partly Sunny 53° 38° NW 8–28 mph 38% rain
- Wed Sunny 57° 38° NW 5–9 mph 18% rain
- Thu Mostly Sunny 53° 35° NNW 6–12 mph 12% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 58° 39° W 5–6 mph 3% rain
- Sat Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers 60° 41° NW 6–9 mph 18% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
Ellis County burning rules: Burn Resolution
From the county burning information page on the KDHE Flint Hills Smoke Management site (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. That page says it may be incomplete; call the county before burning.
No official ban list to check here, so Cownty shows the National Weather Service fire-weather alerts for the county instead: none right now. State fire-restrictions page.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 2.02 in; same month last year 3.99 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Ellis County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Hays 1 S weather station (4 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 171-day growing season |
Apr 25 1 year in 10 it's after May 8 |
Oct 15 1 year in 10 it's before Sep 29 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 191-day growing season |
Apr 15 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 29 |
Oct 24 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 10 |
Plainville 4wnw weather station (23 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 178-day growing season |
Apr 23 1 year in 10 it's after May 6 |
Oct 20 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 3 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 197-day growing season |
Apr 12 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 30 |
Oct 29 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 13 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Hays 1 S, Plainville 4wnw), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Ellis County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Yes. Ellis County is on FSA's 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program county list, with up to 2 monthly payments for some pasture types. FSA decides each operation's eligibility; apply at your county FSA office by March 1 after the loss year.
What is the drought level in Ellis County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Ellis County was in no drought, and the worst part was abnormally dry (D0) on 4% of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Ellis County?
No official statewide list to check: Kansas has no statewide official burn-ban list; county commissions set bans and announce them locally (county emergency management or sheriff).
What sale barns are near Ellis County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Dodge City (89 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026; Salina (92 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Pratt (94 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 20, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.