Clay County rain, outlook and forecast
As of the Oct 27 Drought Monitor, most of Clay County, KS showed no drought; four weeks earlier 45% of the county was abnormally dry (D0) or worse, now 0%. Over 90 days rain is at 120% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 38% (well below normal); the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans drier than normal (33% chance of below-normal rain) and the NWS forecast peaks at a 74% rain chance on Tuesday (high 59°). FSA has not added Clay County to its 2026 LFP list, and Salina is the closest USDA-reported sale barn at 44 miles.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 38% of normal
- Last 60 days 171% of normal
- Last 90 days 120% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans drier than normal (33% chance of below-normal rain)
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Isolated Rain Showers, high 67°, low 62°, 52% rain, wind 10–20 mph
- Monday Showers And Thunderstorms Likely then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, high 74°, low 52°, 69% rain, wind 10–25 mph
- Tuesday Rain Showers Likely, high 59°, low 41°, 74% rain, wind 10–20 mph
- Wednesday Mostly Sunny, high 61°, low 40°, 3% rain, wind 0–10 mph
- Thursday Mostly Sunny, high 58°, low 39°, 9% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 61°, low 41°, 2% rain, wind 0–5 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny, high 65°, low 43°, 21% rain, wind 0–5 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Clay County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag
Neither Clay County nor any county touching it is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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FSA grain loan rates (2026)
What FSA will lend on stored grain, per bushel. Lets you hold grain instead of selling at harvest.
| Crop | Clay County | National average |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | $2.44 /bu | $2.42 /bu |
| Grain sorghum | $4.17 /cwt ($2.34 /bu) |
$2.42 /bu |
| Soybeans | $6.72 /bu | $6.82 /bu |
| Hard red winter wheat | $3.59 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
| Soft red winter wheat | $3.12 /bu | $3.72 /bu |
County marketing-loan rates. Sorghum's county rate is set per 100 lb; the per-bushel figure uses 56 lb a bushel. Source: FSA 2026 corn/sorghum/soybean schedule, wheat schedule, national rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
FSA farm loan interest rates
| FSA direct loan | Rate |
|---|---|
| Farm Operating - Direct | 5.375% |
| Farm Operating - Microloan | 5.375% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Microloan | 6.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Direct, Joint Financing | 4.250% |
| Farm Ownership - Down Payment | 2.250% |
| Emergency Loan - Amount of Actual Loss | 3.750% |
Set nationally by FSA; the same in every county. Effective Oct 1, 2026. Source: FSA current loan interest rates. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Farm program payments by crop (ARC and PLC)
ARC pays when county crop revenue falls below its guarantee. PLC pays when the national price falls below the reference price. You picked one per crop when you enrolled.
2026 program year guarantees only FSA file of Jan 16, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Most it can pay |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | $268.11 | $35.75 |
| Corn irrigated | $1,003.50 | $133.80 |
| Corn nonirrigated | $621.02 | $82.80 |
| Grain Sorghum | $469.66 | $62.62 |
| Oats | $198.58 | $26.48 |
| Soybeans irrigated | $699.24 | $93.23 |
| Soybeans nonirrigated | $436.15 | $58.15 |
| Sunflower Seed | $269.00 | $35.87 |
| Wheat irrigated | $413.48 | $55.13 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | $303.29 | $40.44 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 46.33 bushel/ac × $6.43 | $297.90 |
| Corn irrigated | 221.67 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $1,115.00 |
| Corn nonirrigated | 137.18 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $690.02 |
| Grain Sorghum | 98.46 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $521.84 |
| Oats | 56.0 bushel/ac × $3.94 | $220.64 |
| Soybeans irrigated | 63.84 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $776.93 |
| Soybeans nonirrigated | 39.82 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $484.61 |
| Sunflower Seed | 1189.83 pound/ac × $0.25 | $298.89 |
| Wheat irrigated | 65.82 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $459.42 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | 48.28 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $336.99 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2026 county data.
2025 program year final payment rates FSA file of Sep 30, 2026
| Crop | Guarantee | Actual revenue | ARC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barley | $210.43 | $278.46 | $0.00 |
| Corn irrigated | $959.18 | $925.06 | $34.12 |
| Corn nonirrigated | $629.21 | $560.31 | $68.90 |
| Grain Sorghum | $484.68 | $351.11 | $64.62 |
| Oats | $172.11 | $187.34 | $0.00 |
| Soybeans irrigated | $665.40 | $673.16 | $0.00 |
| Soybeans nonirrigated | $466.49 | $445.20 | $21.29 |
| Sunflower Seed | $282.94 | $370.03 | $0.00 |
| Wheat irrigated | $352.99 | $443.00 | $0.00 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | $293.18 | $321.26 | $0.00 |
Show the math
| Crop | Benchmark yield × price | Benchmark revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Barley | 38.33 bushel/ac × $6.10 | $233.81 |
| Corn irrigated | 211.88 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $1,065.76 |
| Corn nonirrigated | 138.99 bushel/ac × $5.03 | $699.12 |
| Grain Sorghum | 101.61 bushel/ac × $5.30 | $538.53 |
| Oats | 49.8 bushel/ac × $3.84 | $191.23 |
| Soybeans irrigated | 60.75 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $739.33 |
| Soybeans nonirrigated | 42.59 bushel/ac × $12.17 | $518.32 |
| Sunflower Seed | 1252.52 pound/ac × $0.25 | $314.38 |
| Wheat irrigated | 56.19 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $392.21 |
| Wheat nonirrigated | 46.67 bushel/ac × $6.98 | $325.76 |
Dollars per base acre, before the 85% payment-acre factor and sequestration. Source: FSA ARC-CO 2025 county data.
PLC, 2026 FSA table of Oct 9, 2026
| Crop | Reference price | Season avg price | PLC payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat /bushel | $6.35 | $6.30 projected | $0.05 projected |
| Barley /bushel | $5.58 | $5.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Oats /bushel | $3.05 | $3.35 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Corn /bushel | $4.42 | $4.70 projected | $0.00 projected |
| Grain Sorghum /bushel | $4.67 | $4.50 projected | $0.17 projected |
| Soybeans /bushel | $10.71 | $12.00 projected | $0.00 projected |
PLC rates are national (paid on the farm's PLC yield). Source: FSA 2026 PLC table. FSA decides who is paid.
FSA payments in Clay County
$21,334,974
4,126 payments dated Jan 6, 2025 to Dec 29, 2025 (FSA payment file 2025).
| Program | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Emergency Commodity Assistance Program | 2024 | $8,648,151 |
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2023 | $7,239,596 |
| ARC county payments | 2024 | $3,053,227 |
| Supplemental disaster relief (crops) | 2024 | $1,648,693 |
| CRP annual rent | 2021 | $157,937 |
| CRP annual rent | 2022 | $120,249 |
| CRP annual rent | 2024 | $96,176 |
| CRP annual rent | 2023 | $91,067 |
Plus 20 smaller program lines.
County totals only: Cownty sums FSA's public payment file by county and never stores names or addresses. FSA files payments under its administrative county (Clay), which may differ from where the land is. Source: FSA payment file via the FOIA reading room.
Crop conditions (statewide)
Kansas crop and pasture condition
Kansas statewide, not just your county. Wheat planting is on pace with normal (80% vs 79%). From USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, week ending Oct 25, 2026.
| Condition | Poor or very poor | Fair | Good or excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasture and Range | 31% | 37% | 32% -3 vs last week |
| Corn | 34% | 26% | 40% +0 vs last week |
| Cotton | 32% | 40% | 28% +4 vs last week |
Progress
| Kansas | This week | Last week | Normal (5-yr avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Wheat Planted | 80% | 60% | 79% |
| Winter Wheat Emerged | 48% | 30% | 56% |
| Sorghum Harvested | 40% | 30% | 65% |
| Cotton Harvested | 21% | 12% | 29% |
| Corn Harvested | 79% | 70% | 81% |
Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress released Oct 26, 2026 (ESMIS), Kansas rows. Week ending Oct 25, 2026. Fetched Oct 26, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Clay County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Not on FSA's 2026 LFP county list as of Oct 29, 2026. FSA updates the list as drought changes.
What is the drought level in Clay County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Clay County was in no drought, and the worst part was no drought on 0% of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Clay County?
No official statewide list to check: Kansas has no statewide official burn-ban list; county commissions set bans and announce them locally (county emergency management or sheriff).
What sale barns are near Clay County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Salina (44 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Pratt (143 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Dodge City (189 mi), last report Oct 28, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 20, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.