Chase County rain, outlook and forecast
Most of Chase County, KS showed no drought on the Oct 27 U.S. Drought Monitor map, though 5% at abnormally dry (D0); 5% of the county is abnormally dry (D0) or worse, the same as four weeks earlier. Over 90 days rain is at 156% of normal, and the last 30 days came in at 86% (near normal); Monday carries the week's highest rain chance at 70% (high 73°) and the 6-10 day outlook for Nov 7–11 leans toward near-normal rain. Chase County is not on FSA's 2026 LFP list yet, and the nearest USDA-reported sale barn is Salina, 66 miles away.
Rain vs normal
- Last 30 days 86% of normal
- Last 60 days 176% of normal
- Last 90 days 156% of normal
NOAA river forecast center rain (radar plus gauges) at the county center, Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Rain outlook
- 6-10 day outlook (Nov 7–11) Leans toward near-normal rain
- 8-14 day outlook (Nov 9–15) Leans toward near-normal rain
NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook, issued Nov 1, 2026. Source.
Next 7 days
- Today Mostly Cloudy, high 70°, low 61°, 30% rain, wind 8–21 mph
- Monday Showers And Thunderstorms Likely, high 73°, low 53°, 70% rain, wind 8–25 mph
- Tuesday Chance Rain Showers, high 64°, low 43°, 51% rain, wind 8–17 mph
- Wednesday Sunny, high 64°, low 41°, 17% rain, wind 3–10 mph
- Thursday Mostly Sunny, high 61°, low 40°, 14% rain, wind 3–8 mph
- Friday Mostly Sunny, high 62°, low 42°, 2% rain, wind 2–5 mph
- Saturday Mostly Sunny, high 66°, low 43°, 22% rain, wind 2–6 mph
National Weather Service forecast for the county center, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind, warnings and burn bans.
Open loss windows
No open loss windows in Chase County right now. A 30-day window opens when the county first hits severe drought (D2), jumps to D3 or D4, or after a blizzard, extreme heat or cold, flood or ice warning, a wildfire, or a USDA disaster designation. Keep a Drought Ledger.
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Cownty sends nothing to FSA.
Drought-sale tax flag
Neither Chase County nor any county touching it is on IRS Notice 2026-54 (Sep 1, 2025 to Aug 31, 2026).
Why it matters: if you sold breeding, dairy or draft livestock because of drought, the tax code may let you put off the gain (more time to buy replacement animals, or report the extra-sale income a year later). Your tax preparer decides whether either applies.
Work out your numbers and print a page for your preparer
Information only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Ask your tax preparer. FSA decides program eligibility. IRS Notice 2026-54 (PDF)
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Weather for Chase County
Forecast for the center point of Chase County.
- Windy on 1 day
- Today Mostly Cloudy 70° 61° SSE 8–21 mph 30% rain
- Mon Showers And Thunderstorms Likely 73° 53° S 8–25 mph 70% rain
- Tue Chance Rain Showers 64° 43° WNW 8–17 mph 51% rain
- Wed Sunny 64° 41° WNW 3–10 mph 17% rain
- Thu Mostly Sunny 61° 40° NW 3–8 mph 14% rain
- Fri Mostly Sunny 62° 42° NNW 2–5 mph 2% rain
- Sat Mostly Sunny 66° 43° W 2–6 mph 22% rain
Forecast from the National Weather Service, updated Nov 1, 2026. Wind arrows point where the wind is going; the letters say where it comes from. Windy = 25 mph or more; freeze = a low of 32°F or less. Open the full forecast.
Burn ban
Chase County burning rules: Permission to burn is obtained the day of the burn. Call the sheriff’s office at 620.273.6313 extension 1 to request permission. Be prepared to provide name, location of the burn, and approximate acreage to be burned. Permission to burn will be determined by weather and smoke modeling forecasts and may change during the day. Upon completion of the burn, the sheriff’s office should again be notified.
From the county burning information page on the KDHE Flint Hills Smoke Management site (source), as of Nov 1, 2026. That page says it may be incomplete; call the county before burning.
No official ban list to check here, so Cownty shows the National Weather Service fire-weather alerts for the county instead: none right now. State fire-restrictions page.
Weather warnings right now
None right now
National Weather Service active alerts for this county, as of Nov 1, 2026 (source). Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Rainfall vs normal
How to read this
Bars are the rain that fell each month; the dashed line is a normal month (1991-2020 average). Bars below the line = drier than normal.
County-average precipitation, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Normal = NCEI's own 1991-2020 average for each month (Sep 2026 normal 3.39 in; same month last year 3.42 in). NCEI posts each month around the 8th of the next and may revise recent months. Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance. Fetched Oct 30, 2026.
Wildfires
No current fire perimeter in the county
No current perimeter within 100 mi of the county center (83 mapped nationally).
Interagency fire outlines. Small or brand-new fires are often not mapped yet; call 911 for a fire you can see. Layer updated Nov 1, 2026. Source: National Interagency Fire Center. Fetched Nov 1, 2026.
Frost dates
Frost and freeze dates
30-year averages (1991–2020) from the weather stations nearest Chase County. Frost = 32°F; hard freeze = 28°F.
Cottonwood Falls weather station (6 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 180-day growing season |
Apr 19 1 year in 10 it's after May 3 |
Oct 18 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 1 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 200-day growing season |
Apr 7 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 24 |
Oct 27 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 13 |
Tallgrass Prairie Np weather station (9 mi away)
| Typical last spring frost | Typical first fall frost | |
|---|---|---|
| Frost (32°F) 188-day growing season |
Apr 15 1 year in 10 it's after May 1 |
Oct 22 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 4 |
| Hard freeze (28°F) 208-day growing season |
Apr 6 1 year in 10 it's after Apr 21 |
Oct 31 1 year in 10 it's before Oct 16 |
Source: NOAA U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Cottonwood Falls, Tallgrass Prairie Np), NOAA files as of Jun 27, 2023. Fetched Oct 18, 2026.
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Common questions and nearby counties
Is Chase County eligible for LFP in 2026?
Not on FSA's 2026 LFP county list as of Oct 29, 2026. FSA updates the list as drought changes.
What is the drought level in Chase County this week?
On the Drought Monitor map of Oct 27, 2026, most of Chase County was in no drought, and the worst part was abnormally dry (D0) on 5% of the county. 0 straight weeks with some severe drought (D2) or worse.
Is there a burn ban in Chase County?
No official statewide list to check: Kansas has no statewide official burn-ban list; county commissions set bans and announce them locally (county emergency management or sheriff).
What sale barns are near Chase County?
The nearest USDA-reported sale barns: Salina (66 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Pratt (122 mi), last report Oct 29, 2026; Tulsa (155 mi), last report Oct 26, 2026.
Source: USDA AMS Market News reports
What are the upcoming FSA and farm deadlines?
Next: Nov 20, 2026: Apply for NRCS conservation cost-share (EQIP, CSP, ACEP) to be considered for 2027 money; Nov 20, 2026: Micro Farm 2027: last day to buy crop insurance. FSA program dates not posted officially are marked "confirm at source" on the calendar.
Source: official agency pages (see Calendar)
Information only; not financial or legal advice. FSA decides eligibility. Always check the linked official source.