No one can tell you what the market will do next month, and this guide doesn't try. What we can show you is the usual pattern in past USDA auction prices. You can use it as a starting point, then weigh it against your grass, your costs and this year's market.
How a "seasonal index" works
Economists take years of USDA-reported monthly prices. For each month they compare the price with that year's average, then average those comparisons across many years.
- An index of 1.05 (or 105) means that month has run about 5% above the yearly average.
- 0.95 (or 95) means about 5% below.
What the data show for steer calves
Texas, 500–600 lb Medium and Large No. 1 steers, 2013–2022 (Southern Ag Today, from USDA auction data):
- October was the low, about 4% below the yearly average (index 96).
- March was about 3% above (index 103).
Oklahoma and Texas, 1991–2000 (Oklahoma State University and the Livestock Marketing Information Center, from USDA AMS data):
| 500–600 lb steers | Jan | Mar | Apr | Jul | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | 0.992 | 1.053 | 1.048 | 1.006 | 0.961 | 0.946 | 0.965 | 0.982 |
| Texas | 0.994 | 1.061 | 1.058 | 1.013 | 0.960 | 0.942 | 0.946 | 0.956 |
The pattern in plain words:
- Calf prices have tended to run higher in late winter and spring (February–April). That's when grass is coming on and demand for stockers is strong.
- They've tended to bottom in the fall (October–November). That's when most spring-born calves are weaned and sold at the same time.
- Cull cows show an even bigger swing, with a pronounced fall low, because most herds cull after weaning.
- Heavier feeder cattle (700–800 lb) have a flatter, more mixed pattern.
The big caution
The seasonal pattern is only an average. In some years the overall market trend swamps it.
- In 2014, prices rose all year and ran right over the usual fall dip.
- In 2015, a falling market hid the usual spring high.
And a spring-sale price isn't free money. To sell in March instead of October, you carry the calf through winter. That means feed or wheat pasture, labor, interest, death loss and shrink, and the calf will weigh more, so it brings less per cwt (see our guide on price per cwt vs. per head).
Using this on your place
- Pull your barn's history. USDA My Market News has past reports. Compare your weight class in October and in March across a few years.
- Price the "hold" honestly. Add up what it costs to carry a calf from weaning to spring, then compare that with the value of the gain and any seasonal lift.
- Value-added programs may matter more than the calendar. Calves marked "Value Added" on USDA reports often bring a premium. That label means traits like a known vaccination program and weaning for more than 30 days; many preconditioning programs require 45. See our fall weaning checklist.
- Consider price protection if you hold cattle. See our guide to LRP insurance.
- Don't let the calendar override the grass. In a drought, holding calves may not be an option.
Cownty shows USDA-reported calf prices by barn and weight, so you can watch your own market week to week.
Cownty is an independent service and is not affiliated with USDA. Past seasonal patterns don't predict future prices. This is general information, not financial advice.
See it for your county
Check your county
Every county, by state: Texas · Oklahoma · Kansas · New Mexico
Official sources
- Peel (Oklahoma State University) & Meyer (LMIC), Cattle Price Seasonality (2002), USDA AMS data 1991–2000
- Maples, Counter Seasonal Runs in Cattle Prices, Southern Ag Today (Aug. 8, 2023), Texas auction data 2013–2022
- Texas A&M AgriLife Extension – Livestock Seasonal Price Variation (2022)
- USDA My Market News (your barn's current and past reports)
Rules and dates checked against these pages on Oct 18, 2026. Information only, not legal, tax, insurance or financial advice: the agency decides. Not affiliated with USDA or any government agency.